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There is no tournament on earth that compares to the NCAA’s March Madness. It gets me moist just thinking about it. And Selection Sunday is one of the biggest days of the year for me as a professional bracketologist. Turtleboy’s rival in the field of bracketology is Joe Lunardi from ESPN.com. Every year Joe and I challenge the other to see who can come closest to accurately picking the exact 68 teams that will get in the tournament. Every year I lose. Last year Joe got 67 of 68 right, while I only got 66. This year I can pretty much guarantee Turtleboy will get all 68 right. Here’s your official bracket before tomorrow’s selection show. Note that there are five conference championship games tomorrow. If UConn beats SMU they will be in the tournament and one of the 11 seeds will be eliminated. Arkansas also plays Kentucky, Michigan State plays Wisconsin, Dayton plays VCU, and Georgia Southern plays Georgia State. We’ll break em down by seeds. Turtleboy’s picks are in gold, Lunardi’s are in italics.
1. Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Virginia
Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin
Lunardi has Wisconsin in instead of Virginia. Jerry Palm at CBS has Wisconsin in over Duke. Duke kicked the shit out of Wisconsin this year. The ACC is far and away the best conference in the country and deserves two one seeds. Nova and Kentucky are locks. If these aren’t the four one seeds then the committee is a joke.
2. Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Notre Dame
Kansas, Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga
If Wisconsin isn’t a 1 then they’re obviously a lock for a 2. Arizona and Gonzaga are pretty much guaranteed this seed, although Zona probably thinks they can still get a 1 seed. But NO ONE has Notre Dame as high as we do though, which is INSANE. The Irish just won the best conference in the country (ACC) and have beaten Duke and North Carolina TWICE EACH this year. That’s just plain silly. Quite frankly, they’re easily the best of these 2 seeds. Both Palm and Lunardi have a Big 12 team as the fourth 2 seed. Palm has Iowa State, Lunardi has Kansas. Both of those teams have 8 losses in an inferior conference. Notre Dame has 5 losses.
3. Maryland, Kansas, Iowa State, North Carolina
Notre Dame, Maryland, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Turtleboy is the only bracketology expert who has UNC as a 3 seed. Like I said, I have a thing for the ACC this year. Maryland is a shoe in for a 3 seed, and Iowa State and Kansas can do no worse than this.
4. Louisville, Northern Iowa, Baylor, Arkansas
Louisville, Baylor, North Carolina, Northern Iowa
Everyone’s got Northern Iowa as a four. Lunardi has Baylor as a 3, which they could be. But if Arkansas can find a way to beat Kentucky tomorrow they’ll be a lock for this seed, if not for a 3.
5. Wichita St, Oklahoma, Oregon, West Virginia
Utah, Wichita State, West Virginia, Arkansas
These guys love Oklahoma, and I don’t get it. Lunardi has them as a 3 seed. They’re not that good. Lunardi also has Utah as a 5 instead of Oregon. Doesn’t make any sense. They play in the same conference, have the exact same conference and overall record, but Oregon just beat them last night in the Pac 12 Tournament.
6. Providence, Michigan St, Utah, SMU
Providence, SMU, Georgetown, Michigan State
PC is a lock for a 6. SMU should be as long as they beat UConn tomorrow. Utah or Oregon will be in the 5-6, and it should be in the order Turtleboy has it in. Michigan State is on the rise and had a big upset over Maryland today to get them up to this seed.
7. Georgetown, VCU, Xavier, Davidson
Butler, Xavier, Oregon, Iowa
The Atlantic 10 gets absolutely no credit. They put SIX teams in the tournament last year and Dayton made the Elite 8. But Lunardi has VCU as a 9 and Davidson as a 10. Bullshit. I’d take those teams any day of the week over Georgetown or Butler, or some schmuck team from a “major conference. Xavier is hot as shit right now and has beaten a buttload of really good teams.
8. Dayton, San Diego St, Ohio St, Butler
North Carolina State, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Ohio State
If Dayton beats VCU tomorrow they should switch seeds with them. Lunardi’s got Butler and Cincinnati way too high.
9. North Carolina St, St. John’s, Purdue, Oklahoma State
Dayton, St. John’s, Oklahoma State, VCU
We actually have 3 of the 4 same teams here. He has NC State one spot higher, and I don’t have a problem with that because NC State has beaten a shitload of really, really good teams this year. St. John’s and Purdue are hot as hell too. Oklahoma State has lost 6 of 7, but they’ve got a bunch of quality wins this year too.
10. Iowa, LSU, Cincinnati, Georgia
Davidson, Purdue, Georgia, BYU
Like I said, people like Lunardi fall in love with the big names. I look for quality. There’s no way Davidson is a 10 seed. They’re a ranked team and they’re one of the hottest in the country.
11. BYU, Boise State – play ins: Miami, Colorado State, Texas, Temple
Colorado State, Texas, – play ins: Ole Miss, Temple, Boise State, LSU
This is where bracketologist legends are made right here. The 11 seeds. After this you start with your automatic bids from the conference championships. Wyoming upset San Diego State today, and since the Aztecs were already going no matter what, they stole an at-large bid from one of the bubble teams. But just to be clear, none of these teams really deserves to be playing for the National Championship. For the record I think URI should be in, but they’re in the A-10 so no one gives a fuck about them.
With that said, I’m basing my final selections on big wins. BYU beat Gonzaga. Boise State has won 16 out of 18. Colorado State is a consensus it seems to get in. Temple has a big win over Kansas on their resume. Texas has a couple good wins over Baylor and WVU.
So it all comes down to that final spot. Turtleboy has Miami, Lunardi has Ole Miss. Miami won AT Duke. Ole Miss’ best win was at Arkansas. Not quite the same thing. Canes get in.
Disclaimer: If UConn beats SMU tomorrow, which they almost definitely will because UConn always wins games like this, then they’ll be an 11 seed but won’t have to play in a play-in game. Boise State will bump to the play-in game and Texas will be out.
The rest of the teams are all conference winners. Doesn’t really matter at this point. Here they are for the record.
12. Wyoming, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
Stephen F. Austin, Wofford, Buffalo, Harvard
13. Georgia St, Northeastern, Buffalo, Valparaiso
Wyoming, Valparaiso, Buffalo, New Mexico State
14. North Dakota St, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC Irvine
UAB, Northeastern, UC Irvine, Albany
15. UAB, Coastal Carolina, North Florida, Albany
Montana, North Dakota State, Belmont, Coastal Carolina
16. Montana, Lafayette, Hampton, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Texas Southern
North Florida, Hampton, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Lafayette, Texas Southern
Bring it on Lunardi.
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1 Comment(s)
Where was Umass on that list? Wait, this isn’t an NIT projection? Wait- they’re probably not even going to make that either? That’s a shame.