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So every year President Obama does a bracket special on TV. He just picks his winners with Andy Katz on a big ol’ industrial size poster board. Republicans use it as an opportunity to blame him for ignoring everything else in the world. Democrats use it as an opportunity to point out how hip the President is. I am going to use it as an opportunity to predict how predictable politics mixing with sports can be. Every single year, his picks are calculated and have geopolitical consequences. Whether or not you like him, the fact of the matter is that he’s a crafty and savvy Chicago-style politician.

Obama doesn’t have to worry about re-election anymore, but 2014 is a big year for congressional elections. One third of the Senate seats are up for grabs. 100% of the House of Representatives is “up for grabs” as well. Although anyone who follows politics knows that representatives are more often than not in for life. I’ve had the same congressman for 20 years and at no point has anyone come forward to challenge him.

Nevertheless, Obama NEEDS Congress to be on his side. They’re constantly trying to repeal Obamacare and last year they just said “f*** it” and let the government shut down for a month. His life would be much, much easier if he could maintain democratic control in the Senate AND take back the House of Representatives. And how do you please the average blue collar moderate from Everytown USA? Pick their basketball team in the NCAA tournament. It’s brilliant when you think about it. He’s done it every year, and it’s gotten him re-elected while maintaining a solid majority in the Senate.

Here’s what he will pick this year:

South Bracket

This is easily the most predictable bracket by far. Florida is the best team in the country. They haven’t lost in forever. They’re a force of nature. Oh yea, and politically they’re arguably the most important state in the country. Of course he picks the Florida Gators to win this bracket. Ohio State is also in here, but they’re the six seed. Obama isn’t stupid. He doesn’t take ridiculous long shots because it’s a slap in the face to the lower seeded teams they’d have to beat. He’s not going to invest much in second seeded Kansas. Neither of their two Republican senators is up for re-election. They have four representatives, all of which are republican, and all of which are guaranteed to win again in November. He’s going to have Florida beating sixth seeded Ohio State in the Elite Eight. Here’s how the rest of his bracket will look:

East Bracket

This is another easy one. Virginia is the top seed in the conference, and a politically relevant state. They’re normally a safe state for republicans, but he won this state in close elections in both 2008 and 2012. It’s also right near Washington DC. Both of their senators are democrats – Tim Kaine and Mark Warner. Warner is up for his first re-election and according to most polls, he’s in serious jeopardy of losing his seat. Obama cannot afford to lose this seat. Only three of Virginia’s 11 representatives are democrats. There’s just no way he doesn’t pick the Cavaliers to win this bracket.

He’ll definitely take George Washington (obviously). I bet he surprises everyone and takes Harvard over Cincinnati. The Crimson are coached by a sharp young African-American man, and Harvard grads vote – but more importantly they donate to campaigns. He’ll have Michigan State doing some damage, because he’s largely responsible for the fact that Detroit is not yet classified as a third world country. He’s gonna have another six seed North Carolina make the elite eight, beating Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen. NC is a politically relevant state. He lost there in 2012 after winning in 2008. No one would call picking North Carolina a huge upset either. It’s a safe pick for him.

Here’s what this bracket will look like:

West Bracket

This is by far the hardest one to pick. Arizona and Wisconsin are the top two seeds here. Both of those are extremely relevant states politically. AZ governor Jan Brewer is a republican who literally almost bitch slapped the President over immigration…

but she also just vetoed a conservative bill that would’ve made it legal for cake makers to not make cakes for gay weddings – because this is what politics has turned into. WI governor Scott Walker is a professional dooshnozzle, and he’s as conservative as you get.

Obama won Wisconsin both elections, but not by THAT much. He lost Arizona in both elections, but not by THAT much. Wisconsin has eight representatives, five of which are Republican. Arizona has nine representatives, five of which are Democrats. Arizona has two republican senators, while Wisconsin’s are from both parties.

This is a really, really hard bracket to call. He’d like to stick it to both Governors. Ultimately I think he gets along better with Brewer right now because gay marriage seems to be the only thing anyone wants to talk about, so he has more to gain by taking Wisconsin. That’s who he’s gonna pick out of this bracket.

The rest of the teams in this bracket all come from states that are either firmly entrenched republican (Oklahoma State, Creighton, Baylor, Nebraska, BYU, Oklahoma), or hardcore liberal (Gonzaga, Oregon, San Diego State). He has absolutely nothing to gain or lose in any of these states.

Midwest Bracket

Finally the UMass bracket. Sorry guys, but he ain’t picking us. He’s gonna take Iowa to win the play in game and beat us. Iowa is a midwestern state that for whatever reason tends to vote slightly democratic. One of their senators is a democrat, the other is republican. Unfortunately for UMass/Obama fans, longterm democratic senator Tom Harkin is retiring, and his seat is open in 2014. This is one of the biggest races in the country. There is a ZERO percent chance that Obama doesn’t have them winning the play in game and then beating UMass.

Wichita State is the top seed in this conference, but you can get away with having them lose early, because all of the “experts” think they’ll bow out because they haven’t played diddley poo this year. They’re also from Kansas so Obama has no use for them.

Second seeded Michigan is tempting for the President, but I think by taking MSU to win a few games he’s already thrown that state a bone.

Kentucky and Louisville are both politically relevant. The Commonwealth has two republican senators that rank 1 and 2 on Obama’s pain in the ass list – Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell. It’s McConnell’s turn for re-relection. The Senate minority leader only got 53% of the vote last time around, so he’s actually somewhat vulnerable. Obama goes to bed at night and dreams of McConnell being replaced by a smokeshow, birth control loving liberal. He’ll have KY upsetting Wichita State, and then Louisiville beating Kentucky and going to the Elite Eight.

On the bottom of the bracket he’s gonna take Duke over Iowa, and then Michigan. Duke is in NC, so obviously that’s something that would benefit him. He just has to take into account the dooshnozzle factor. If you pick Duke, you’re kind of being a dooshnozzle. For that reason he will take Louisville to beat them and advance to the Final Four.

Here’s how the rest of his bracket will look:

In the Final Four he’s going to pick Louisville and Florida, with Florida winning it all. When you all see his bracket after he does his annual show with Andy Katz, you can say you read it here first. So share this blog so the world can know that TurtleBoy is two steps ahead of the most powerful man in the world.

Feel free to share your thoughts to keep the conversation going.

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