Looking forward to football is the ultimate conundrum. On the one hand I can’t fucking wait for the NFL to get here already. On the other hand the better the football gets the shittier the weather gets. Nevertheless I am getting more and more aroused every day with the prospect of football taking over my life on Sundays. I can just hear Mrs. Turtleboy complaining already, and it’s music to my ears.
One of my favorite things to do every year is bet over/unders for preseason win totals. Some of them are total gimmes. Like the Patriots. Their over/under is 11. Ummmm, free lunch anyone? I just couldn’t fathom the Pats losing more than five games in one of the worst divisions in football. Can’t possibly happen. Hell even if Brady goes down I feel like our backup QB’s are better than half the league’s starters.
This is a team that has failed to win at least 11 games in only 3 of the last 13 seasons. Oh yea and they added the best cornerback in football to a roster that went 12-4 last season.
Vegas is in the business of having an equal amount of people bet both possible outcomes so that they win no matter what. Clearly what has happened here is that there are so many Patriots haters out there (who hate us because of our freedom and alpha male status) that they let their jealousy of us get the best of them and are betting against the Pats. They are violating the number one rule of betting – don’t let your emotions get in the way of a bet. If I were alive in September 1939 I would’ve gladly taken the under of two months it would take Hitler to blitzkrieg Poland. Doesn’t mean I’m a Nazi. It just means I like making money off of guaranteed outcomes.
I’m going to be doing an over/under pool in which you pick whether each team goes over or under their Vegas win total. Fifty bucks gets you in. If the line is a push, like if the Pats only win 11 games, then it counts as a tie. If you’re interested I’ll send you an Excel file that you complete by checking either the over or under column for each team. Then you hit save and email it to me. You can change your picks up until opening kickoff of the first game, because obviously injuries can fuck with everything. The person with the best record wins. Depending on the size of the field there may be others. No matter what the champion will be getting a Turtleboy Sports T-shirt, which are still on sale. Message me if you’re interested.
Oh yea, and we also what Jimmy Latino’s preseason picks and we want them on video now. So that’s obviously coming soon.
With that said here are my preliminary, initial picks (subject to change) for each team.
Arizona Cardinals 7.5 – Over. I’m probably overrating them and may change this, but they won 10 games last year and they have one of the best defenses in the league.
Atlanta Falcons 8.5 – I’m a big believer in bounce back seasons, and this team is a prime example. They went from a first round bye to one of the biggest jokes in the league. Nevertheless I love the over with the Falcons and think Matt Ryan has a bounce back season.
Baltimore Ravens 8.5 – This was a tough one but I went over. Someone has to win this mediocre division. The Ravens are like a perpetually 9-7 team, which is what I think they’ll do this year.
Buffalo Bills 6.5 – So conflicted with the Bills. On the one hand I think they’re a joke on account of being the Buffalo Bills. On the other hand I kind of believe in E.J. Manuel and think they’ll surprise everyone by going 9-7 this year. Over.
Carolina Panthers 8.5 – Vegas has no faith in this team. They’re 50-1 to win the Super Bowl after finishing 12-4 last season. Clearly they know something I don’t. Nevertheless I’m a sucker. Over. Way over.
Chicago Bears 8.5 – One of the easiest I’ve ever seen. This team has 6-10 written all over it. Jay Cutler is the ultimate loser, and Josh McCown isn’t there to bail him out this year. And their defense might be worst in the NFL somehow. Under.
Cincinnati Bengals 9 – All this team has done in the last three years is win games and make the playoffs. However, it’s the fucking Bengals. Plus they are just waiting for a reason to say Andy Dalton is overpaid and Marvin Lewis should be fired. This is a 7-9 team. Under.
Cleveland Browns 6.5 – Talk about an easy under. Obviously morons are lining up to take the over for this to be so high. In the last 11 seasons this team has won more than 6.5 games exactly ONCE. That’s insanely bad. And all of a sudden they’re gonna win because Johnny Rookie Bitch is running the show? LOL. Maybe if Hoyer plays they can win six games, but not otherwise.
Dallas Cowboys 7.5 – Another awful team in an awful division. The Eagles aren’t that good but they will run train on the NFC East. Another basic rule of gambling is that when in doubt, ALWAYS bet against Tony Romo. Under.
Denver Broncos 11.5 – You never see lines of 12.5 or 13. But you should. Because there’s no way this team loses more than four games. A Patriots – Broncos AFC Championship is the most obvious outcome in the history of sports outside of the NBA. Over.
Detroit Lions 8.5 – Another team that could have a bounce back year. I was torn on this one but in the end I went under, for no other reason except intuition. Because it’s the Detroit fucking Lions.
Green Bay Packers 10.5 – Vegas is all about this team this season. Kind of a high line. I think they will win their crap happy division easily, but winning 11 games seems like a stretch. I think this is a 10-6 team. Under.
Houston Texans 7.5 – They’re in the exact same boat as Atlanta. They went from a flawed twelve win team to the worst team in football. I have a feeling they’ll bounce back. The problem is that Ryan Fitzpatrick is their starting quarterback, so that means they’ll bounce back to 7-9. Under.
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 – I wanted to take the under because I figured this team would be overrated, but 9.5 seems more than fair. They might have three of the five worst teams in football in their division, which means at least five wins right there. Gotta go over.
Jacksonville Jaguars 5 – Come on bruh. Under. No explanation necessary.
Kansas City Chiefs 8 – Vegas is treating them like Carolina. This was a team that started off 9-0 last season. And all Alex Smith ever seems to do is win. Andy Reid is a good coach too. They obviously know something I don’t in Vegas, but nevertheless I’m going with my gut and taking the over.
Miami Dolphins 7.5 – Mark my word. The Dolphins will finish last in the AFC East this season and they’ll go 1-5 in the division. This is a five or six win team. Under.
Minnesota Vikings 6 – I understand the Vikings suck, but they play in a bad division so they have to win some games right? Vegas is giving them less credit than Cleveland. Doesn’t seem right. Over.
New England Patriots 11 – Clown question bro. Over like you’ve never seen over before.
New Orleans Saints 10.5 – They’re such heavy favorites to win the NFC South this year that I have to think they’re overrated. Ummmm, they didn’t win it last year or the year before that so why is everyone riding this team so hard? Under.
New York Giants 8 – I think this team has the potential to be catastrophically awful. I’m talking 4-12 awful. They’ll start talking about firing Tom Coughlin again, and then he’ll win the Super Bowl next year as 200-1 underdogs. Under.
New York Jets 7 – I think we’re looking at another 8-8 Jets team here. Geno Smith will last two or three games as a starter. Then Mike Vick will win like six of eight games before getting hurt. Then they’ll go back to Geno, start losing again, and everyone will debate if Rex Ryan should be fired. Over.
Oakland Raiders 5 – Obviously the Raiders blow. But I don’t think they’re nearly as bad as the Jaguars, who also have an over/under of five. I can see them going 5-11, but I think they’re much more likely to be a 6-10 pile of shit than 4-12 pile of shit. Over.
Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Nick Foles is real deal Holyfield. And they get to play the Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys twice. No way this team loses more than six games. Over.
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 – This fucking team. What a headache they can be. One year they make the Super Bowl, the next three they don’t make the playoffs. I think this is a bounce back year for the Steelers and they win the AFC North. I know nothing about them except they still have Big Ben and they’re the Steelers. They’ll go 10-6. Over.
San Diego Chargers 8 – Tough one. Is this the team that ended the season hot as hell last year and won a playoff game? Or is this the San Diego Chargers? Eight wins is just a perfect line for this team. I think we’re looking at an 8-8 team, but I like their chances of winning nine more than I do losing nine. Over.
San Francisco 49ers 10.5 – Believe it or not I think this team is underrated. How do they have the same over/under as the Packers? How does that make ANY fucking sense at all? This is a team that was a Richard Sherman deflection away from winning the Super Bowl last year, and has made three straight NFC Championships. I think they beat Seattle twice, win the NFC West, and go 13-3. Over.
Seattle Seahawks 11 – People are obviously riding high on this team and rightfully so. But part of me still thinks Pete Carroll is a dingleberry of the highest degree. I think they’re an 11-5 team, but put a gun to my head and I say under.
St. Louis Rams 7.5 – Every year this team is supposed to break out, but every year Sam Bradford shows that he is a bigger bust than we though. Plus, they play in the best division in football. Gotta go under here.
Tampa Bay Bucs 7 – I like Josh McCown and I think they’ll be better than they were last year. I also think Lovie Smith is a joke and playing the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons twice doesn’t bode well for them. This is a 6-10 team at best. Under.
Tennessee Titans 7 – If I have to google who your starting quarterback is then that’s not a good sign. Turns out it’s still Jake Locker, which is an even worse sign. Because the Jake Locker train is about as reliable as the Ogdenville Monorail. This is a 5-11 team. Under.
Washington Redskins 7.5 – Another team that went from the playoffs to a drive-by creampie victim. It’s just hard to have faith in a team that is led by a quarterback who seems unlikely to ever play a 16 game season. On the other hand they were overly bad last year because Mike Shanahan gave zero fucks about anything. I think they’re the second best team in the NFC East, which puts them at 7-9. Under.
So there you have it. If you want in on the over/under pool let me know. As usual feel free to tell me how wrong I am about these predictions in the comments. Bonus points if you call me creative and original derogatory names.