Politics

Here’s Why The Election Is Going To End In A 269-269 Tie

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I’m actually pumped for Tuesday. It’s gonna be awesome. And not just because I don’t have to watch any Kelly Ayotte is the antichrist commercials anymore. But for the first time since 2004 we have an election that’s actually whose outcome is not 100% known going into election day. And just so Turtleboy is on record, we wanted to call our shot – we think it’s going to be a tie. 269-269. I know, I know. Ties are as un-American as you can possibly get. And a tie isn’t really a tie. It means Trump is President because the House then chooses the winner, and the house is controlled by Republicans. Here’s what the electoral map is gonna end up looking like:

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I know Trump people can’t come to terms with this fact but here it is – polls matter. And as of right now, that’s what the polls look like in each state, and how they’re trending. Real Clear Politics, which is as unbiased as you get, does a good job of showing you which states are actually up for grabs: (in the gray)

screen-shot-2016-11-04-at-1-28-41-pm

As of right now, that would make the score 224-164. In other words, the only 12 states that really matter in this election are Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. And Trump has to win most of them.

However, some of those “toss ups” aren’t really tossups. Trump will win Georgia and Hillary will win Virginia. Hillary will also most likely win Pennsylvania and Maine. That would make the score 260-179, and the election would come down to the following 8 states: Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire.

When President Bush won in 2000, he won Virginia. Since Trump is probably gonna lose that Republicans have to make that up somewhere. Iowa helps out with that because Bush lost Iowa in 2000, and they will likely vote Trump this time around.

2000_large

Arizona will likely go Trump, as will Ohio. That would bring the score to 260-214. The election would then be decided by the five following states: Colorado, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire.

Florida has 29 electoral votes. Trump simply cannot become President without winning Florida. So for the sake of argument, let’s say Trump wins there (which we think he will). That would make the count 260-243, and Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and New Hampshire would decide the election.

Since North Carolina has 13 electoral votes, it’s safe to say that if Hillary wins NC, she wins it all, since that would bring her to 273. So, once again, for the sake of argument, let’s assume Trump wins in NC (he’s winning in the polls there). That would make the score 260-256. And it would mean these three states will decide the election:

  • Nevada (6)
  • Colorado (9)
  • New Hampshire (4)

Somehow.

If Hillary wins Nevada and NH (she’s trailing in both), she can afford to lose Colorado and still win 270-268. But Nevada is leaning well for Trump, and Colorado is leaning well for Hillary. So for the sake of argument, let’s assume the end up as the polls indicate they will. That would bring the count to 269-265 in favor of Hillary. And the American election will be decided by Hampton fucking Beach. If NH goes for Trump, it’s a tie and he wins. If HN goes for Hillary then she wins.

This is INSANE!! Obviously she is the favorite. He has must win east coast states of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. On top of that he really needs to win NH. Failure to do so would mean the election would come down to Colorado, and he’d have to win there AND Nevada. But, if some upset like Trump winning Pennsylvania happens early on, it probably means he is going to win the whole thing. Either way, Turtleboy is juiced up for election day. We’re gonna be running a contest to have turtle riders fill in their electoral map. Anyone who gets the entire country right gets a free Turtleboy t-shirt or coffee mug.

 

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26 Comment(s)
  • Gronkmonster
    November 5, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    Anyone who at this point that can still vote for Hitlery should be banned from raising a child or ever voting again..How much more crap do they have to uncover on this super criminal !!

    Will be awesome if she wins and then trys to pardon herself as they cuff her!

  • FiestyLawyerLady
    November 5, 2016 at 4:48 pm

    I’m a narcissistic queen of hearts. That’s my cwomment because I have no idea what any of you are twalking about.

  • bird
    November 5, 2016 at 7:46 am

    The House of Representatives is not obliged to vote for any of the candidates currently seeking the presidency in the event that no one ends up with the necessary 270 electoral votes. Paul Ryan could be the next president.

    • John Aldress
      November 5, 2016 at 8:22 am

      It doesn’t have to be a current candidate, but it has to be someone who receives electoral votes. Like you said, however, Paul Ryan would be an option and certainly a legitimate one.

      • Chris
        November 5, 2016 at 12:46 pm

        John, you are correct. Bird doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Paul Ryan has to receive an electoral vote just to be considered, which is unlikely.

        Secondly, the electors are not exactly allowed to vote for whomever they please. In most states the electors are picked in advance by the candidates, and additionally, the electors are required take an oath for the state’s winner. However it could be broken because the actual votes are secret.

      • BobnMic
        November 5, 2016 at 12:49 pm

        If that scenario ever played out and Paul Ryan became our next President I’d happy as shit!

  • Watch NH
    November 5, 2016 at 6:48 am

    Don’t underestimate the importance of the NH senate race. The party that wins will control the majority. Ayotte is a true NH native where as Hassan is another left wing plant from Boston who was sent to NH to expand nutty liberal ideas.

    • Chris
      November 5, 2016 at 12:41 pm

      Her hubby covered up for sex abuse by a teacher who under his supervision at Phillips Andover because he donated to Maggie’s campaign.

    • Anthonys Weiner
      November 6, 2016 at 1:15 am

      Plus Hassan looks like David Bowie’s ghost.

  • John Barker
    JohnB
    November 4, 2016 at 8:10 pm

    Tie game after regulation and OT…SHOOTOUT!!!! WOO Doggie!!

  • Tudor turtle
    November 4, 2016 at 6:37 pm

    If the result ends in a tie, like you said. That means Donald J Trump would have to go down on his knees, and kiss house speaker Paul Ryan’s ass for congressional votes.

  • Wabbitt
    wabbitt
    November 4, 2016 at 5:21 pm

    Can’t we just collectively declare a do over? Another year of campaigning would be preferable to either bozo running now.

  • TurdCutterJones
    November 4, 2016 at 4:42 pm

    Pretty sure TB spent the last six months guaranteeing a Clinton win.

  • Realist
    November 4, 2016 at 4:42 pm

    No matter the outcome, Gridlock will persist in Congress and nothing will get done. Win or lose the Dems will survive. I can’t say that about the Republicans though, this is the end of the party as you know it.

    • Thank you Anthony Weiner
      November 4, 2016 at 8:24 pm

      Hilary MAY get indited but Bill WILL be indited. So this will be the end of the Clinton Cartel.

    • Thank you Anthony Weiner
      November 4, 2016 at 8:29 pm

      Thank God its the end of the Republican party. Bunch of nutty RINOS with “pathway to citizenship ” bullshit and bending over to president osama. Trumps draining the swamp.

  • Rambling Rose
    November 4, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    You forgot that Maine CD2 is going to Trump.

  • November 4, 2016 at 2:22 pm

    i thought tie too but more likely reps vote johnson if they tie

    • Chris
      November 4, 2016 at 4:19 pm

      They can’t vote for Johnson if he doesn’t get electoral votes. Trump wins Maine’s 2nd Congressional Dist. and he wins! If Evan McMullin wins Utah then he’s an option.

      • Anthony's Weiner
        November 4, 2016 at 8:16 pm

        Yes, that may occur as well.

      • John Aldress
        November 5, 2016 at 8:21 am

        I think McMullen is a lot more than an option. And he doesn’t have to even win a state to be considered, according to the 12th Amendment. A fed-up elector would just have to give him a single electoral vote. There is no way that states with Republican-controlled legislatures would vote Trump or Hillary over McMullen. Cable news will absolutely explode if there is no majority, and it will be wonderful.

  • BlackandWhite
    November 4, 2016 at 2:03 pm

    269-269: Gronk will be happy. LOL!

    I like realclearpolitics dot com. They gather various polls and then average them.

    • Anthony's Weiner
      November 4, 2016 at 8:15 pm

      Top map looks good except Trump pulls off Wisconsin. No tie.

    • Sal Monella
      November 5, 2016 at 4:25 am

      RCP is the average of oversampled polls. The media is in the bag for the hag and trying to demoralize the Trump supporters so they over sample Democrats and under sample Republicans and Independents. Some polls showed the bitch up 13 points. How could that be when she couldn’t fill a Senior Center when Trump over flowed a sports stadium in the same city?

      Now that the election is near the pollsters are being more honest and sampling closer to reality. Her advantage of 13 points is gone and Trump is leading. The pollsters need jobs in 4 years when Trump is running for re-election. Hillary will be dead of natural causes (syphilis) by then.

      • Riggins
        November 5, 2016 at 8:49 am

        True, they WAY oversample Dems, and WAY, WAY UNDERSAMPLE the key INDEPENDENTS/UNENROLLED, IE IN New Hampshire, there are a ton of Unenrolled yet the polls only sample about 7% of them,

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