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I’m actually pumped for Tuesday. It’s gonna be awesome. And not just because I don’t have to watch any Kelly Ayotte is the antichrist commercials anymore. But for the first time since 2004 we have an election that’s actually whose outcome is not 100% known going into election day. And just so Turtleboy is on record, we wanted to call our shot – we think it’s going to be a tie. 269-269. I know, I know. Ties are as un-American as you can possibly get. And a tie isn’t really a tie. It means Trump is President because the House then chooses the winner, and the house is controlled by Republicans. Here’s what the electoral map is gonna end up looking like:
I know Trump people can’t come to terms with this fact but here it is – polls matter. And as of right now, that’s what the polls look like in each state, and how they’re trending. Real Clear Politics, which is as unbiased as you get, does a good job of showing you which states are actually up for grabs: (in the gray)
As of right now, that would make the score 224-164. In other words, the only 12 states that really matter in this election are Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. And Trump has to win most of them.
However, some of those “toss ups” aren’t really tossups. Trump will win Georgia and Hillary will win Virginia. Hillary will also most likely win Pennsylvania and Maine. That would make the score 260-179, and the election would come down to the following 8 states: Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire.
When President Bush won in 2000, he won Virginia. Since Trump is probably gonna lose that Republicans have to make that up somewhere. Iowa helps out with that because Bush lost Iowa in 2000, and they will likely vote Trump this time around.
Arizona will likely go Trump, as will Ohio. That would bring the score to 260-214. The election would then be decided by the five following states: Colorado, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire.
Florida has 29 electoral votes. Trump simply cannot become President without winning Florida. So for the sake of argument, let’s say Trump wins there (which we think he will). That would make the count 260-243, and Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and New Hampshire would decide the election.
Since North Carolina has 13 electoral votes, it’s safe to say that if Hillary wins NC, she wins it all, since that would bring her to 273. So, once again, for the sake of argument, let’s assume Trump wins in NC (he’s winning in the polls there). That would make the score 260-256. And it would mean these three states will decide the election:
- Nevada (6)
- Colorado (9)
- New Hampshire (4)
If Hillary wins Nevada and NH (she’s trailing in both), she can afford to lose Colorado and still win 270-268. But Nevada is leaning well for Trump, and Colorado is leaning well for Hillary. So for the sake of argument, let’s assume the end up as the polls indicate they will. That would bring the count to 269-265 in favor of Hillary. And the American election will be decided by Hampton fucking Beach. If NH goes for Trump, it’s a tie and he wins. If HN goes for Hillary then she wins.
This is INSANE!! Obviously she is the favorite. He has must win east coast states of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. On top of that he really needs to win NH. Failure to do so would mean the election would come down to Colorado, and he’d have to win there AND Nevada. But, if some upset like Trump winning Pennsylvania happens early on, it probably means he is going to win the whole thing. Either way, Turtleboy is juiced up for election day. We’re gonna be running a contest to have turtle riders fill in their electoral map. Anyone who gets the entire country right gets a free Turtleboy t-shirt or coffee mug.
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